huangthomas

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154 Comments

    • Thu Nov 20th 11:17 AM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      China's Greatest Trade Ever: The Sequel
      China may soon become No. 1 gold producer in the world. They may just hoard their own production and not purchasing from the world market. If they sell part of their production, gold bugs surely will be extremely disappointed.
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    • Sun Nov 16th 23:43 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      China Slowdown: A Drag on Global Growth
      Without recent stimulation package, China can still grow at 7% yoy. With added stimuli, it will add 1.5% to the growth to 8.5% GDP growth.
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    • Fri Nov 14th 14:43 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Betting on China’s Stimulus Plan
      In time of financial crisis, small private companies may not be a best bet, unless the management of the companies have good "GuanXi" with powerful government officials. For example, Citic Pacific HongKong was saved by infusion of $1-2 billion after loosing in currency bet. What is the "Guanxi"? Well, chairman of the board and CEO is the son of the former State Vice Chairman of China, Rong Yi-ren. The son's first name is Yun, which is the Cantonese pronouciation of the same Chinese character Ron. Are you confused? I am too!
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    • Fri Nov 14th 14:21 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China's Hefty Stimulus Package - Bad for the Dollar?
      The reasoning is sound. The question is when? I believe everyone is right as long as the current financial turmoil is still on, the US$ will remain strong.
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    • Fri Nov 14th 11:52 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China’s $585 Billion Renovation
      Chinese central government has monopoly right to use the brand name "China". Any corporations have "China" in the name, they are all Chinese central-government-own... enterprise. "China" mobile and "China" Unicom are all "China" state-owned enterprise.
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    • Fri Nov 14th 11:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China's Hefty Stimulus Package - Bad for the Dollar?
      Possible weakness in US$ depends more on the trade imbalance between two countries and not on the Chinese national budget. There never be a budget item to purchase US treasuries in Chinese national budget.
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    • Tue Nov 11th 11:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      What Can 4 Trillion Yuan Buy?
      Four trillion CNY stimulus package will add 1.5% to GDP growth per year and keeps Chinese GDP growth rate at around 8.5% rate. Politically Chinese government needs to keep growth rate above 7 to 8% to pacify the populace, otherwise social unrest will intensify.

      Every spring, Chinese press publishes the number of millionaires and billionaires in China. The numbers are commendable. Last spring, Xinhuanet, the official mouth piece of China, publishes a sarcastic editorial asking the press to publish the number of the poor in China to remind Chinese that, in term of per capita GDP, China is still a poor country. There are plenty of welfare programs in the stimulus package, such as low-income housing and national health care system, to assist poor to attain their proper places in the society.
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    • Tue Nov 11th 10:33 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Chinese Bailout May Send U.S. Interest Rates Higher
      It is almost a "requirement"... for the exporting countries to use their trade surplus to purchase US treasuries. This has been an open secret for decades. As the US economy slumps, we import less from China, Chinese trade surplus decrease. There will be less money for China to purchase US treasuries, yet US needs for borrowing will undoubtedly increase to save our economy. Two trillion plus Chinese foreign exchange reserve are already loaded up with US treasuries. CNY 4 trillion stimulation package would undoubtedly be a deficit spending. Only Fed can decide the interest rate level. I don't think Fed will allow it to sky rocketing to shoot down US economy.
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    • Mon Nov 10th 11:06 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Opportunity to Sell Into China's Illusory Stimulus Package
      How much funds are available to purchase US treasury depends more on the trade imbalance between two countries, and not on Chinese national budget. It is an open secret that US treasury always arm twisting Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, China.......to purchase US treasuries. To China, infrastructure construction is a better investment for the future than buying US treasuries.

      Of course planning takes time. You don't take a map, choose two points and draw a straight line for the rail system construction. The social welfare spending takes much shorter planning time. As long as they plan to spend so much money for the next two years, it will help to lift Chinese economy, which is in dire shape.

      Chinese dislike the fact that the West expect China to contribute to save the world financial crisis without much saying in the decision making process. Chinese always say "it is unfair".
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    • Sun Nov 9th 12:52 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Beyond the Crisis: A World Made of BRICs
      China has just announced a stimulation package amount to 586 billion for two consecutive years. The size of the stimuli amount to almost 25% of GDP. It just indicates how international financial crisis can impact on Chinese export-oriented economy. It is a myth that encouraging domestic consumption can keep the GDP growth going. The current leadership is correct in identifying infrastructure, especially rail system, and increasing social welfare as means of stimulating Chinese economy. China has just decided the government will invest in a national health care system which require massive investment by the government. Revamping the educational system is another area China must pay attention to.
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    • Thu Oct 30th 11:59 AM | Rating: 0 -1
      Commented on:
      China's Greatest Trade Ever
      Nice intellectual exercise, but I don't believe any central banks should be involved in market manipulation. China accumulate US$ denominated debt instrument, because China has to lend us money to buy their products. This happened to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan........
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    • Wed Oct 29th 17:54 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China Wants the U.S. Dollar to Drop Dead
      The national debt of the US is 62% of GDP and it takes 3% of GDP to service the debt. At the end of great depression and WW II, our national debt was 75% of GDP. I don't wish to comment if this is too much or too little. But, just look at other economies. The second largest economy, Japan, has national debt of 180% of GDP. The third largest economy, Germany, has national debt of 75% of GDP. The national debt of the fourth largest economy, China, has stated national debt of 16.5% of GDP. But, I suspect much of the national debt of China is hidden as the NPL of the state-owned banks.
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    • Wed Oct 29th 15:42 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      China Wants the U.S. Dollar to Drop Dead
      Using China to carry on a scare tactic in the US must have some domestic political agenda when presidential and congressional election is less than a week away. Remember last time it was WMD in Iraq, now it is US$ in China!

      Discussion of replacing US$ as reserve currency started in Europe and gulf states long before China came on the scene. China has to be very protective of US$ when 70 to 80% of her two trillion $ foreign currency reserve is in US$. During the current financial crisis, US$ becomes stronger, even stronger than gold. That is what China is doing. Come on say something which make sense!
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    • Tue Oct 7th 12:50 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Old Power Technology Not the Cause of China's Pollution
      The underlying problem is price control of the energy. The power companies cannot pass through the cost of high grade coal to consumer of the energy.
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    • Mon Oct 6th 14:02 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Inflation, Deflation and the U.S.-China Relationship
      There is a rumor in China that China will lend us 200 billion out of 700 billion congress just passed. Hank Paulson has long standing good working relation with Vice Premier Wang (in charge of economy).
      View article »
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