BrunoT

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    • Thu Oct 30th 12:23 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold: War of Attrition
      JasonC,

      I wonder if in 2 years you will admit how wrong you were with the same pomposity as you laid out your current theory.

      $60 Trillion in unfunded obligations, annual $1-2 Trillion fiscal deficits, and and rolling waves of multi-billion "bailouts" in our future (of states, of banks, of homeowners with mortgages, etc) tell anyone who can do basic math that massive inflation will result.

      Where'd you take economics 101? University of Zimbabwe?
      View article »
    • Tue Oct 28th 13:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Expecting Epic Gains in Gold Miners
      Greg, I'm curious why you choose 1980 as a "buy and hold" date and not say, 2001? Or 1974? I bet if you take ANY asset class and go back to its all time high as a buy date, you won't have an impressive return! Inflation adjusted that high would be about $2500 today, or more than 3 times what it's priced at now.

      Do you think buying at the highest high of a market is typical? Do you think $650-$700/oz is the higest gold has been or will be?

      And do you really think the author is saying "buy and never ever ever sell ever" ? He's saying buy it soon, hold it a few years, then sell it when appropriate. NOT buy it, hold it till it rises and don't sell, then hold it till it drops to where you've lost money, and THEN sell! As the economic conditions change, the value of holding gold will as well.

      The author points out in his later comments that gold has done better than most other asset classes even as it "burst". (quiz: Which is better, losing 25% in gold for a few months (assuming you bought at the high) or losing 40% in the stock market?) Go check the market's performance inflation-adjusted for the last 8 years. It looks about the same as if you bought gold in 1982!

      I happen to agree that it will rise since we have $60T of future govn't obligations that could not be met even if we taxed all personal income 100%. So this "deflation" of a few trillion dollars will seem like a drop in the bucket soon as the printing presses pour money into the system like never before.

      We haven't even seen the dip in tax revenues from a recession yet. We'll be lucky not to hit $2 Trillion a year on-budget deficits within a couple of years. But hey, the dollar has strengthened 20% for a few months, so gold is obviously a barbaric relic, I'm selling! Nothing's stronger for the dollar than deficit spending, right?
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    • Sat Oct 25th 11:21 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold in a Credit Crisis
      $1 Trillion plus deficits on the horizon for as far as the eye can see say you're wrong antigoldbug. As does history. Gold was $250 or so 7 years ago. It's about triple that even after a big correction. How's that stock market looking in comparison? Or Real estate? Or bonds? If this shiny stuff is so worthless except as jewelry why is this the case?

      Go check your own records Mr. Commodities expert. There have been huge (around 50%) corrections in oil, wheat, soybeans, corn, etc while all marched steadily up in price.

      My guess is you're a FORMER employee for a reason.
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    • Fri Oct 17th 14:48 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold, Silver and Deflation
      Such simplistic arguments put forth in some of the quoted columns! "if gold didn't soar during the crash it never will!" Does it even occur to the writer that when you suck trillons of debt out of the economy and people still have hope for "saving" it, then most won't rush to gold? Only when the reality dawns will gold rise. There are many many factors pulling on the price of all assets. A single simplistic rationale won't cut it.

      Does nobody recognize that if gold goes down in a "deflation" when priced in dollars that those dollars will buy you more stuff? Yet if we see inflation and you're in gold it will probably also go up and mirror that? I didn't get the impression from the comments that this was understood. Gotta stop thinking just in terms of dollars.

      How much house or car or clothing or food will an oz of gold buy you? That is the important question. That is the beauty of it in a crisis. If things turn out to be good, you keep most of your investment and your job. But if things hit the fan, you are protected.
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    • Fri Oct 17th 11:02 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Oil Heading for $150 a Barrel, Gold for $1500 an Ounce - Merrill
      Your infantile style does little to convince anyone of anything you're trying to say. You'd be more effective with a grownup approach.
      View article »
    • Thu Oct 16th 12:01 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Moral Hazard: The Real Culprit of the Financial Crisis
      This happened because of a morality problem, period. By that I mean we tolerate dishonesty, we wink at it as we fill out no doc loan applications, we smiled as our home appraiser simply matched whatever we put down as our home's value instead of giving an honest appraisal. We listened to paid liars on TV tell us everything was fine in 2006-2007 up until it wasn't. We chuckled to ourselves at what great deals we got from the contractors who used illegal labor or paid workers cash off the books, then agreed to pay them cash so they could avoid their taxes in return for a lower price. We graduate students who can't read or write or balance a checkbook, knowing we're doing them and our nation a disservice.

      Think we're not a nation that tolerates dishonesty? Go flip on the radio and listen to just about any advertisement, be it for weight loss powder or get rich quick schemes. We know this dishonesty and unprincipled behavior goes on constantly in almost every phase of life, but we tolerated it. We tolerated it because we thought if it made or saved us a little extra money it would be ok. And now it's not ok.

      View article »
    • Wed Oct 15th 18:39 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Time to Buy Commodities Is Near
      Epeon. It's very volatile. My Canadian royalty trust holding were down 13% today. So much for it already being discounted for the future recession! (even though it was already almost 50% down off highs)

      I stick to the macro picture and let the traders gamble on the short term moves. Oil is a needed product and available relatively "cheap" today. It will move up with inflation, so it has some inflation hedge properties built in. I wouldn't own most stocks today though. Not a ton of upside.
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    • Wed Oct 15th 18:36 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Time to Buy Commodities Is Near
      Hey CLH. Never say "never". Why? Well, when's the last time world govn'ts printed money on this scale to bail out failed banking systems? So for that reason the previous rules are out. I really think too many people are still thinking in terms of "business as usual" investing. These are unprecedented times. Only if one can calculate the money leaving vs the money being injected accurately could you determine if it's falling or rising. I can't do that.

      The fact that Mike Norman seems to agree with what my theory is (short term price falls and volatility followed by a long term move up in commodities as inflation hits) scary, though. He's been wrong for years now.
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    • Wed Oct 15th 18:29 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Gold ETFs: What Went Wrong With Conventional Wisdom?
      Does it occur to the author that the dollar has strengthened on the fact that there is a temporary demand for them in lieu of stocks and in lieu of foreign currencies that are in bad shape? Once this settles in the market price, and once consumers and others wake up to massive inflation from money printing and endless "bailouts" and "stimuli" ahead, won't gold rise then?

      Also, please note that just because other countries are printing money like crazy, that doesn't "strengthen" the dollar against anything except those currencies. Go check how many oz of gold things cost today vs before. Be it a house, a gallon of gas, food, you name it.

      Thinking in nominal terms of dollars and in the very short term only is how one finds himself poor in retirement.

      Gold has several factors temporarily holding down its value, but my bet is that they are only temporary. For starters, the economy has to adjust to a lower standard of living, which means selling cars, homes, and other non-essentials at fire-sale prices, which dampens inflation numbers. If we could simply print $1,000,000 into every American's pocket to solve our problems we'd have already done it. But at some point this money creation will show up in price inflation. EVEN homes. But by the time that happens a loaf of bread will be $10.

      The hard part is knowing exactly when this will occur. That's why I bought in at $675-$910 and am holding my gold.

      Jim Rogers pointed out in an inteview how commodities have seen several vicious corrections on the way up for years now, but the trend has always been up.
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    • Sun Oct 12th 09:18 AM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Is Gold A Sucker's Bet?
      Yet another self published and self proclaimed "expert" who gets it wrong. Just reading the column one can see he has an incomplete and shallow understanding of the economics involved.

      View article »
    • Tue Oct 7th 17:37 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Real Price of Gold Soars
      Sounds like someone has a pet theory he's sticking to no matter what.

      It is interesting how the prism one views the world through can distort one's conclusions. Those predicting massive inflation would point to the fact that money will be printed to replace any lost as credit and that the entire US population will soon be on the dole. We could see quarterly "stimulous checks"

      meanwhile, gas costs more than a year ago. So does bread. And gold. And personal services that are required (not luxuries and fluff). Go build a home. It costs more than a year ago despite the bad market. Go buy a car that isn't a large SUV or truck. It will cost you more. Go obtain healthcare or insurance on it. Costs more.

      Asset prices can rise and fall based on MARKET CONDITIONS. It's the money supply that is inflation/deflation.

      If you're in the market for buying a home and have cash to pick up cheap stocks and commodity ETFs, then you can claim deflation. For the rest of folks, it's inflation.
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    • Sun Oct 5th 17:04 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Analyst: Oil Prices Inflated by 50%
      Keep in mind this is the same Mike Norman saying at various times that housing was fine, freddie and fannie were fine, financials were a great buy, the economy was booming, etc.

      Even a blind squirrel sometimes finds an acorn. Oil has fallen some since this.
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    • Wed Oct 1st 22:27 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Bailout Cost, per Taxpayer, by Income
      JasonC.

      Interesting point. But did you stop to realize that aggregate GDP is not spread uniformly? What if most of the gains/benefits accrue to the top 5% (those who own stocks of these companies and others) yet the bonds are repaid by a broader spectrum? (those who consume most of their income)

      And more things come to mind that should be considered. What of the costs of inflation caused by injecting dollars into the economy, which is born more heavily by "working class" people, as the costs of necessities is a higher percentage of their income. And what of the intangible costs of the moral hazard created? Put a value on that one! And from what I'm reading $700B is not the end of it. What happens when CDS and credit card and auto loans are added to bailouts? Where does it end? And once we're in for $700B, there would be severe pressure to "protect our investment" with further cash outlays.

      I think the calculations required here are beyond any one page column.
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    • Sun Sep 28th 12:09 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Time Not for a Bailout, But for Nationalization
      The author shows he is ignorant when he claims we "did nothing" during the great depression. Oh yeah? What are price controls and wage controls? The govn't action prolonged and deepened it.

      With "experts" like this no wonder we're in deep kimchee.
      View article »
    • Thu Sep 25th 12:10 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      It's the End Of the World As We Know It and I Own Gold
      Comment on those saying "you can't eat gold". etc. No, you can't, but you can sure get more for it in trade than you can with bullets and canned food. Doubt it? Go look at reports from Berlin in 1945. People used diamonds and gold to help them find ways to escape via gaining access to military and govn't transportation and even bribing Russians. Then after the war Nazis used these "hard assets" to gain passage out of Germany while someone with paper reichsmarks would have been laughed at. When the fiat money fails, gold is the money. I doubt they would have accepted 20 truckloads of spam and 12 cases of shotgun shells instead.

      And of course, completely ignoring Tim's column, they again go straight to a Mad Max world. You can get kicked out of your home and be homeless even w/o mayhem raging in the streets, guys. If you buy some significant amount of gold you're protected against hyperinflation. It won't defend your home from zombies for you. But it might mean the difference between destitution and getting by.
      View article »
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