Kinabalu

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126 Comments

    • Thu Nov 20th 13:30 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      My Reconsideration: Why Share Buybacks Are Pointless
      The comments pretty well cover the things the article missed. But one item not discussed, although dilettantedude hits part of it, is the effect of buybacks on executive stock options. Almost every public company has a stock option program and buybacks intrinsically make stock options more valuable. I have never seen a stock option that has its price or number of shares adjusted for the antidilutive effect of a buyback even though a buyback requires no executive management expertise to implement.
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 19th 17:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Yet More Paulson Revisionism
      Felix, This is probably the worst article of yours that I've read. Usually you start out with a better idea and then do better research on it.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 17th 18:53 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      GE, Goldman Bond Spreads: Unrealistic and Unsustainable
      On Nov 15 10:09 AM BS Detector wrote:

      > Based on the thinking behind the article, would you expect him to
      > be invested any other way? Are you as skeptical of somebody who's
      > bullish and long?

      My comment was based on the conclusion that the thinking behind the article was shallow and inconclusive. This is a "short & distort" article like many that appear on this site. The concept that bond buyers don't factor credit default risk into their pricing decisions is ridiculous. Could it possibly be that the CDS market pricing is off-base?

      Are you having a senior moment and forgot your earlier comment? "The CDS market is extraordinarily thin, with very few sellers, especially when compared to the corporate bond market. The thinner the market, the more likely pricing errors will occur."
      View article »
    • Fri Nov 14th 18:11 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      GE, Goldman Bond Spreads: Unrealistic and Unsustainable
      I think the authors disclosure tells you all you need to know about the point he makes in this article.
      View article »
    • Thu Nov 13th 14:18 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Key Quotes from Thornburg on Mortgage Lenders
      You do a diservice to your readers by including excerpts of TMAs disclosure that highlight the doubling of their delinquency rates and the industry delinquency rate at June 30, 2008 of 8.25%, without noting that TMAs rate doubling was from 0.81% at June 30,2008 to 1.58% at September 30, 2008.

      TMA has always had far superior delinquency rates to just about any other mortgage reit.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 11th 19:06 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      'The Market and the Internet Don't Care if You Make Money'
      The old rule of thumb was that it takes twenty years for a really new, great idea to be accepted. For example, index funds, or, Milton Friedmans thesis that money supply was the only economic indicator that mattered. So someone out there has probably identified the business model that will replace the NY Times. We just haven't accepted it yet. Scott, maybe it's you and your giant network. I hope its not just Google.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 11th 15:28 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Neel Kashkari Wants You to Read Between the Lines
      If only Congress could read between the lines.
      View article »
    • Sat Nov 8th 16:11 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      The Next Crisis Is on the Horizon
      "There are a lot of technical ways for the Treasury to effectively raise taxes on Treasury securities and lower them for other types of lending"

      Mark:
      If I understand the second item in your comment, You are talking about Tax Regulations. I would agree that the Treasury has great power in that area. However, to my knowledge they have never used that power in an economic stimulation context, i.e. outside the normal, time consuming, proposal - comment - final regulation process. I am sure that if they did attempt to do so there would be some intense bureaucratic screaming from the direction of the IRS and from Congress.

      This is a much more revolutionary article than I originally thought.
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 5th 21:12 PM | Rating: 0 0
      Commented on:
      Signs of a Tradable Bottom Appear
      I guess you missed on this one.


      On Nov 03 05:06 AM Alan von Altendorf wrote:

      > Obama win = sharp rally
      > McPain win = sharp drop on riots, recounts, lawsuits
      View article »
    • Wed Nov 5th 18:24 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Who is Responsible for Hedge Fund Secrecy: Governments or Managers?
      "Some hedge fund managers want less secrecy - a lot less. Phil Goldstein, for one, wants to be able to talk about his funds in public"

      What a shibboleth! If he wants to talk about his fund he should do an IPO. Then he will have disclosed the bad with the good. What he really wants is to talk about the good only.

      The theory behind being allowed to talk freely to accredited investors is that they will be sophisticated enough to see through the rosy pronouncements and ask the hard questions. In fact, the theory falls down because the main criteria to be an accredited investor is that you have a lot of money. While there are always exceptions, most accredited investors made their money in some specific line of work other than investing, and are not, in fact, sophisticated investors.

      Accredited investors are, however, easy marks for sophisticated hedge fund marketers, which is a skill that is much more common than sophisticated hedge fund managers.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 15:06 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Signs of a Tradable Bottom Appear
      This article is too good. I'm with EuroTrash above. The optimism will just grease the slippery slope of hope.
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 14:43 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      Why TARP Has Failed
      "Others, such as myself, see proper valuation - be it mark-to-market or otherwise - as the linchpin to addressing today's problems"

      I don't think Dr. Markowitz (he does have a Ph.D. in economics) was thinking about accounting when he referred to valuation as the critical step, I think he was talking about the economics of investing. An investment in a 30 year mortgage that a bank intends to hold to maturity is a different investment than one that you may sell tomorrow. There is no question that runs on banks have been caused by made up values for hard-to-value assets.

      Dr. Markowitz is an interesting subject because the "Father of Modern Portfolio Theory" is also the "Father of Financial Engineering". You can trace the antecedents of many of the sophisticated mortgage products created in recent years back to him. I prefer Warren Buffets admonition: "Beware of geeks bearing formulas".
      View article »
    • Tue Nov 4th 12:25 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      JPMorgan Meets WaMu Homeowners, Face to Face
      "Bair has been far more vocal in demanding social responsibility and accountability from their bank merger beneficiaries than either Treasury Secretary Paulson or Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke"

      "The customer does not know in advance the rules of this game, which is demeaning"

      Bair was so good at undercutting the WM & WB negotiations with potential acquirors that you want her to do the same with mortgage delinquents around the country. Her conduct in those two takeovers was deplorable, and now you give her accolades for "social responsibility"?

      Why don't you think about the moral hazard created by telling homeowners that if they go delinquent on their mortgage they will get a better deal. JPMorgan has the right idea by limiting the program to mortgagees who “intend to honor their commitments.” Sheila Bairs social responsibility is a political fiction.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 3rd 16:50 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      The Next Crisis Is on the Horizon
      "Treasury can also change tax laws to favor lending over the holding of Treasury securities"

      This would certainly help with the hoarding problem, but it would take time and congressional action. Unfortunately I don't see a Democratic Congress as interested in providing banks with a special tax incentive at this time, despite its great potential.

      I don't think the other regulatory powers that Treasury could utilize amount to much, which accounts for that increased possibility of higher inflation. Monetizing the debt has been used by the Fed in the past so it's the easy solution for them now, with all its negative ramifications.
      View article »
    • Mon Nov 3rd 16:17 PM | Rating: +1 0
      Commented on:
      The Markets: Comedy or Tragedy?
      "the US elections, where we'll finally know the identity of the replacement to the current US administration, whose terminus is as widely anticipated as the government of Julius Caesar"

      A better metaphor than many may think.

      Loved your article.
      View article »
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