Will Sirius XM Drop to the Teens?
A stock price that was beyond comprehension only three months ago is now edging ever closer to actually happening. As of this writing, Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) is in danger of dipping into the teens. This will place the equity at a new all time low, as well as bring it further away from the $1 billion market cap that would allow the company to access a $100 million credit facility through Loral (LORL).
The company has expressed that they are active in trying to negotiate financing for the $200 million due in February of 2009, but as yet there has been no indication that acceptable terms have been reached. The debt issue and frozen credit markets have taken their toll on many companies, and Sirius XM has not been immune.
While company guidance remains that profits are around the corner, the street perception makes any such projections difficult to believe. Negative headline after headline mires the entire investment community, and at this point a recession seems to be a self fulfilling prophecy. The economy is confused, and retailers are so worried that they are initiating Black Friday sales a week and a half early in hopes of prying money from consumers who seem more apt to hold onto their dollars.
With this being only Tuesday, we could be in for a rough week, and at this point, unless there is positive news to reverse the trend, a visit to the teens seems more and more likely. At that point, people will begin to wonder whether you can get a share for one dime!
Position: Long SIRI.
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This article has 42 comments:
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sl62
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820 Comments
Nov 19 09:21 AMSeems everytime you come up with a decent article, you follow it up with a couple of clunkers...where's any substance in this? Yeah, it allows people to post, but I'd rather have less articles, more substance from those calling themselves "authors or "writers."..... IMHO...
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APPLE123
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11 Comments
Nov 19 11:28 AMIT'S SAD , AS MAJOR SHARE HOLDER
IT'S GETTING TO A POINT WHERE MICHAEL HARTLIEB
THINK'S MARK CUBAN CAN HELP US SHARE HOLDER'S
HE BOMBARD'S ME WITH EMAIL'S DAILY
THIS MUST STOP
WE ARE DESPERATE FOR SOME POSITIVE NEW'S
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shure46
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391 Comments
Nov 19 03:44 PMSiri is going to have a helluva time retaining current subs , much less aquiring new ones
All this talk of refincing debt , all this talk of renegotiating loans , all this talk of RS , new shares etc etc , is just MORE funny money to prolong the inevitable .......It is BS
The ONLY half assed decent SOLUTION - REAL SOLUTION , REAL MONEY , is to TRY for a government bail-out ........1 Billion for 2 or 3 channels .........Maybe there isn't a chance in hell of that getting done , but my question is this ........would it F'ing hurt to TRY !!!!!!!!
It's a helluva lot better than the alternatives of nothing more than diluting current shareholders into oblivion , and then hope you can sucker in another million idiots like me
I voted NO RS , and NO DILUTION ......F 'em sell some assets to get the money , or take some cuts in pay .........we've done our part
Why the hell should we approve another 3 billion shares , just to watch Howard recieve another 100 million shares .........poor F'ing Howard
New financing will not do crap .....It's just new debt paying old debt
Siri is going to have to figure out a way to EARN a billion dollars real quick , because borrowing it is not going to help us , or Siri , at all because growth is going to be stagnant for quite some time .......and possibly could reverse rather easily
Just out of curiosity ....What is keeping Siri from moving into Canada ???? I am not sure of satrad's areas ......but Canada is a helluva market for satrad ............I guess that would require launching 2 or 3 more birds , which of course Siri hasn't got the money to do ...but it seems to me that Canada is the only opportunity for growth at this time ......
So Siri should sell Canada 2 or 3 channels in exchange for Canada footing the bill to launch the birds , and granting access to their country .......maybe I am thinking too far outside the box , but everything inside the box is dead and stinkin'
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cos1000
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1216 Comments
Nov 19 04:21 PMTyler,
This statement is ridiculous. Where have you been? A recession seems to be a self fulfilling prophecy? We have been in a recession for most of this year by all realistic assessments. Forget manipulated GDP growth numbers. The Government Bail Out of the Financial Sector has been trying to keep us from going into a Depression. This, going into the teens article, should be put on your shelf next to the Sirius is selling for a Postage Stamp article. You are contributing to all the bad news by writing an article on the Ticker Price of this stock. I guess that's all a Blogger has to do to get published these days. I agree with s162, fewer articles with more meaningful incite and research, would be better appreciated by this reader.
And This:
Loral isn't in any position to honor their agreement on lending 100M to Sirius unless its for construction of the satellites or cost of the launch. Every other scenario for utilizing that facility is fantasy. I covered that in your original article published here on Seeking Alpha regarding Loral's credit facility agreement. Everyone concerned, Loral and Sirius, need to do whatever it takes to keep both healthy. Sirius' tanking of Loral by using all Loral's credit agreement would use all available cash on hand at Loral, forcing them into the credit markets to take a 20-30% loss on the resale of this lending. This is not going to happen no matter what Sirius' market cap is before February 2009.
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sl62
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820 Comments
Nov 19 05:02 PMI agree...no votes all the way around...
Blood in the streets again today..whew! Just all red everywhere = bad news. Nearing major rally bounce point = good news. Everyday we keep going down another 300 is another day closer to a MAJOR market bounce (and that goes for SIRI too!). We are wound up pretty tight as it is right now...stay tuned...
SIRI's in a tough spot and outlook is uncertain as to how they go forward... but what all us "old" shareholders have going for us is the incredible short postions that must yet pull profits. Which includes the hedge. Before any BK or share dilution happens, this money needs to be locked up. No short is going to jeapordize their massive profits going through this meeting. Anything is just too posible. Current shareholders should not look a this faux correction as things turning up for the company. At the right opportunity, longs should consider taking what is offered and calling it a day until the company get's their sh*t together. That's what I'm doing. Could be anywhere from .50 - .95. Then a huge crash back down as institutions bail like crazy. Believe it, they are watching the same conditions we are. Some might be dumping here but most are waiting for the squeeze to recoup what they can before dumping it all. After I get my price in the squeeze, I'm out for good on these boys...it'll be see ya Mel my man and good luck with your behemoth! Good product...tough market to grow. They've been hit with EVERY headwind imaginable and should be in Guiness for most sh*t dumped on any company ever. This whole Autos (SIRI's MAIN REVENUE LIFELINE) on the Hill begging for money to survive is just comical (as it relates to SIRI)!! This company has had it ALL!!
I think now that we've hit .16, we are getting close to capitulation. Last time it was .205 in premarket limit down. I said then that I thoughth shorts moved their auto programs down to .17. Could be either .14 or .15 now. Let's see. I now see their strategy. They held off @ .25 and waited until Autos hit the Hill to pounce the leg down...see all the MSM articles that hit the wires yesterday and today? ALL COREOGRAPHED! Nice!!! This whole takedown has been like a ballet. A thing of beauty!
What I heard today (and updated just a minute ago) is the bill is being revised as we speak by Levin. B. Gross said today he expects Autos will get half the 25B now (maybe on Friday) and then it will be up to the Obama Admin. to decide about the rest. I think that's fair. This will be enough to help SIRI and could be the big move catalyst. Friday or Monday depending on the market. The market could be timing overall to that bill as well to unleash to the upside. Either way we're close. Watch, in a few weeks Citi will be $12...let's see. They are going to bid that sucker way back up...All financials will follow. Huge buying ops right now. Just a matter of time...
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sl62
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820 Comments
Nov 19 05:34 PMThey sure took their time for this latest move huh? I think they timed it with the Hill testimony...more info we just don't get as We the Peons...
But at least steps closer to a move up, which is fine.
Every day that goes by without refi news says more and more about another scenario. It's back to my original scenario post Proxy delivery. We know thy're going to burn more cash this Q. So if they had 350M and burn another 80M-100M that's approx 270M - 250M. I can't see them doing any better than that now with TV ad costs etc....
So I put back on the table that they either get their shares approved or they file. That way if it's the latter, they keep their cash. This will be the most tricky share navigation anyone has ever seen in trying to read things correctly. No way will shorts go through that meeting with so much uncertainty on the table. I see people like us and institutions in line waiting for the short cover. Once they get out, we get out, which then re-crashes the stock. How far back down is hard to say. Could all be intraday in one day too or a few days of over 200M shares volume in a row. But I don't recommend viewing inevitable squeeze pop as happy days. I see more pain and big time confusion in the future...post meeting...
What a mess!
IMHO...
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cos1000
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1216 Comments
Nov 19 05:41 PMGreat Post and Hopeful....... we are either at a bounce point (and we certainly better be) or we are at the beginning of something that will not be easily undone. From what I can see and have written briefly with relmor on, if tomorrow breaks below 7900 on the Dow and 790 pm the S&P, we are in for a really bad time. There is very little conviction here below these numbers by anyone's standards. Sideways is not an option. This is a very critical level....... If we break these numbers 7050-7100 is where the DOW pauses next and
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cos1000
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1216 Comments
Nov 19 05:52 PMsorry the last post got cut off but basically this stock is trading off of everything else in the market that's going on. I originally had thought the teens after the CC without refi news was very real. I got caught up in the mffais numbers, thinking we had momentum and an event going on with sentiment that would move us up. As we all researched this weekend, those numbers gave us a false indication, but I was already in and the trap closed on us all.
Now they have taken the stock down another 30 plus % from where most got back in and we are sitting here done in again, feeling stupid. The only news of any solace is that we're all getting slaughtered together... doesn't really do anything for me though. I am pissed at my lack of discipline here... Now I have to either put more in or give it up.... We just don't have the tools to predict where or what they are doing. I am sure that now will not be the time for me to give up and I will support my decision tomorrow with more cash in.... provided the general market doesn't break 7900 Dow or 790 on the S&P. The next leg down doesn't have a parachute...........
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sl62
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820 Comments
Nov 19 06:26 PMAgreed. We got distracted by Q numbers, mffais, etc...I guess though I'm not feeling as bad of this move down because my buy in was a little less specific about getting every penny (which however is always nice). I'm more setting up for the bigger unwind I still believe is coming with this stock (however temporary it may be). I keep thinking about the hedge short (which we all agree led the way down here and helps manipulate events we've all seen in L2). With the price at these levels there can only be a few REAL options...
Oh, I gotta go, I'll finish this later this eve....
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cos1000
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1216 Comments
Nov 19 08:27 PMCheck out the recent quarter reporting and annual reports..... Sirius Canada has been operating for a while.... I don't know about the birds and how many.... but XM has been there also....
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killerkaul
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666 Comments
Nov 19 10:37 PM-
killerkaul
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666 Comments
Nov 19 10:39 PM-
sl62
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820 Comments
Nov 19 10:56 PMThrese guys are good aren't they? Like I said to cos1000, this little punk move down means little to me. Hey, they're about out of real estate so we'll soon see what they think of that...
Stay warm...the winds of Thor are blowing cold!!!
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sl62
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820 Comments
Nov 19 11:41 PMI think one of the things we can't lose sight of is the SIRI game...and what I mean by that mainly is the hedge. It's something that NO ONE reports in the MSM and we've heard about the debt, the subs, the this, the that, but though it's stated very clearly in SIRI filings, the forced hedge is never ever once reported on. So..to that end, it remains the mystery force behind SIRI's fall from grace. Though it's no mystery to us. We know it's what still controls this stock day in and day out. We've seen it in action and know it's real. Cramer acknowledged it. Now down at the end of the rope, it must be reconciled. It can't now just be discounted as if it never existed...and that SIRI is a .16 stock because they suck as a company. That's how the MSM positions it. But if one believes in this mechanical short as real, and knowing its nature, one must also believe in redemption. All that to say, this thing is far from over...IMHO...
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shure46
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391 Comments
Nov 20 02:53 AM-
shure46
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391 Comments
Nov 20 03:03 AM-
shure46
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391 Comments
Nov 20 03:40 AMAnyway , I went to one of those outdoor malls today , and just went walking from store to store .......went in 4 stores that had Siri for their "mood music" , and I went into Circuit City , and checked out the Siri display ....It was set up well , all the radios worked well , user friendly , and demo'd well ......... ( I have been disappointed by many Siri displays in the past )
I actually have a feeling that this Christmas shopping season MIGHT not be as bad as people think it will be .........I think high end electronics will suffer , but stuff in the 200 dollar range just might fair well ......in fact , I can see people passing up the 1500 dollar TV's in order to buy the 100-200 dollar gadgets like Siri and iPods maybe ..........hopefully
Also , one last little ounce of optimism ..........The S&P has a target PPS of 2.00 still ............That's ALL I got , hope it helps
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mogami_99
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129 Comments
Nov 20 07:21 AMWhen I first bought this stock my intention was to just ignore it for a few years and then come back and see how it was doing. I didn't expect things to move so rapid. And by not paying it any attention I would not by bothered by the little ups and downs. So much for that plan.
I now have about 3 times as much in this stock as I intended. The question is: Should I abandon the idea of letting it go for several years and simply jump off when it gets above my price average and even hints about changing direction agai, (I understand it is moot if it continues to fall but ever the optomist I am planning for it to rise above where i got in)
I mean if it does go up the forecast is it will again fall back down to this level not long afterwards. I should forget those predictions of "in 1 year 1.85"
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mogami_99
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129 Comments
Nov 20 07:29 AM-
bdp
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86 Comments
Nov 20 08:57 AM-
shure46
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391 Comments
Nov 20 01:33 PMIf the masses cash in their chips en masse , the market will tank , and there's nothing anyone can do about it .......but really to be honest , at these levels I wish I had 100 K to throw in and wait 5 years ..........unfortunatel... almost all of my investment dollars are tied up in a very sick dog
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sl62
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820 Comments
Nov 20 03:50 PMSo, first today there was money for Autos, then no money. Now, they will come back Dec 2 and review new Autos business plans to justify money...then will vote week of Dec 8 whether to give money...Hey! that's the week before the meeting!!!
This company just can't do anything without last minute drama...unbelievable..... lol
Personally, I hope this market just crashes like to 4000. Let's just get every stock down to $1.00 or less and see how everyone like it. All these pukes selling off in the last hour every day. Maybe then Jeff Macke will feel like buying something. See, these clowns who are normally bulls, who have pulled out of the market, are causing all this volitility and move lower. They basically took their ball, went home and threw the bears the keys to the house. They abandoned us. Left us hung out to dry. Let's just wipe out the entire system and see when they feel like it's enough selling.
[edited for vulgarity]
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sl62
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820 Comments
Nov 20 03:54 PM-
sl62
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820 Comments
Nov 20 04:17 PMWe have a confidence problem and are feefalling and that puke Paulson says today "he's convinced" the financial markets have stablized!!!!What??? They HAVE to suspend mark to market accounting for a year...TOMORROW!!! TODAY...Congress must pass these appropriations. I can't believe they are pulling this autos crap about a pittance 25B. My portfolio is in shambles, hard working people have lost TRILLIONS in wealth since only September and congress wants to see a business plan.
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cos1000
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1216 Comments
Nov 20 04:28 PMI want to know how you really feel my friend... The congress is a joke and its all politics as usual. They are not going to give Paulson or the Bush any relief on their way out. December 8th only puts these guys closer to the next congress and the deal will then get done... shameful.
Meanwhile as you say the middle class gets wiped out and kicked in the arse for investing in the stock market, hoping to make a buck.... Your comment about the foreign autos taking away the last of our icon manufacturing has my Dad rolling in his grave... Not what he had in mind coming home from World War II or what was thought by those Veterans when we called a cease fire on the Korean War. Sad to see the Circus it has all become.... pushing and shoving for the limelight while hard working Americans are looking for solutions in tough times. I am totally disgusted with these lobby paid morons, claiming that they give a shat for their home based constituency, is a joke. They sold their sole to the Washington lobbyists the minute they attended a campaign fundraiser...... They will all go home and eat their Turkeys and claim that their hands are tied and how terrible it all is......
Anyways SOS just a different day.... I supported my position today with a buy in at .145 bringing my recent buy back in to an average of .225 / share. My overall cost per share to brake even is 1.45 / share. Since we broke down to 1.50 when I was at an average cost of 2.20 /share, all the buying and selling of shares at various ranges has gotten me a lot more shares and bettered my average in by .80 / share. If we can avoid going into bankruptcy, which I now give about 40 - 60 that we could at these SP levels, maybe I can get it to under a buck. In order to keep my sanity at these levels, I am now focused on these metrics as I wait.
Boy does this suck...... Citibank is now trading under $5 / sh. How much rebalancing do you think that is going to cause in some Mutual Funds if it stays their for a couple of days? The Dow broke a very important technical support level today of 7850 and the S&P broke through 776-780, this does not signal anything good going into Friday or the short trading week ahead of us..... We should all just turn our computers off and come back after we eat crow, I mean turkey.....
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sl62
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820 Comments
Nov 20 04:41 PMBut my point is, another reason to vote no to shares and reverse, is now there will be no way they won't extend the NAS listing requirement suspension probably from Jan 16 until March 16 (or April). No way that will not happen now...
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cos1000
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1216 Comments
Nov 20 04:49 PMAnd the problem is, as you know, we will all not get the memo when its time to get back in....... by the time we can see its real, we will have lost 1/2 of the gain up.....
Now the next crisis to take us down again is going to be about how the Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities, CMBS market is falling out. With large defaults beginning to occur this week, creating downward pressure as Bonds Values that represent these bundled commercial mortgages, with as you say, Mark to Market devaluations of the underlying properties. The underlying property values being assessed have nothing to do with the performance of the loans. Payments are being made, with defaults only being brought on by the requirement of additional capital to support the Mark to Market valuations. It is similar to a Margin call but on Commercial Real Property values instead of Stock Equity. Suspension of Mark to Market has got to happen or else as bdp above has said, it might be time to grab the ammo, hide the gold, and head into the woods.
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sl62
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820 Comments
Nov 20 05:12 PMThanks for those images regarding your Dad. You are so right. IMO, this week we hit an all time low in this country during the Autos testimony on the Hill. Sadly, we have learned that our congress values the foreign auto industry living and working in this country more than they do its own. An industry that was the backbone of this growing nation. But see? This is what we do. This is the thanks. It's the value that too many no longer have in this country. As far as I'm concerned, we've changed forever. It was the death blow. Honda of Indiana? That's who we look up to huh? Wow. We are done. And why? All for the almighty buck (toilet paper as relmor says). Anything we're done with, just take 'em out back and shoot 'em--even the entire US auto industry. Hey, can't keep up? just go away..thanks for the memories..thanks for shaping our country...now get out! Just like Lehman (who ostensibly financed our railroad system since the Civil War? What? You're now mismanaged? Sorry. we just gotta cut you loose..take 'em out back and shoot 'em! That's what our congress is doing to us. I just heard a great angle on this. Thanks to our wonderful arshole congress, all the people hanging by a thread on this money can now choke on their Thanksgiving dinners--wonderng if they will have jobs. Thanks congress. They suck.
Yeah, I thought about buying some today but, I just can't bring myself to buy any more SIRI. What I have in @ .25/.27 is it. Like you say, who knows if BK is the way they go. I just hope their requests for shares and reverse are denied!
As you say we're in a free fall territory now. We'll just see how low they want to go...it's sickening...
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sl62
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820 Comments
Nov 20 05:25 PMAs we say, if they would just freaking suspend M2M for a year to help sort out the toxicity without devaluing whole security bundles at a time, that would be an incredible relief valve for the economy. I'll tell ya I can't wait for both Pauslon and Bernanke to hit the road. Licking my chops!